Handicap analysis

AVULUS Handicap Analysis

Analyzing 194 matches with kill handicaps from -16.5 to +16.5.

How it works: For each match, we simulate how the result would change if we applied kill handicaps ranging from -16.5 to +16.5. A positive handicap helps the losing team, while a negative handicap reduces the winning team's advantage.

Total Matches

194

Total Wins

Total Losses

117

Overall Handicap Summary

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %	Matches Covered
-16.5	49.35%	0%	19.59%	38
-14.5	55.84%	0%	22.16%	43
-12.5	66.23%	0%	26.29%	51
-10.5	72.73%	0.85%	29.38%	57
-8.5	75.32%	0.85%	30.41%	59
-6.5	80.52%	1.71%	32.99%	64
-4.5	85.71%	1.71%	35.05%	68
-2.5	89.61%	2.56%	37.11%	72
-0.5	90.91%	4.27%	38.66%	75
0.5	90.91%	4.27%	38.66%	75
2.5	92.21%	5.98%	40.21%	78
4.5	97.4%	9.4%	44.33%	86
6.5	98.7%	14.53%	47.94%	93
8.5	100%	17.95%	50.52%	98
10.5	100%	22.22%	53.09%	103
12.5	100%	28.21%	56.7%	110
14.5	100%	35.9%	61.34%	119
16.5	100%	49.57%	69.59%	135

Handicap Analysis by League

DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3

18 matches • 8 wins • 10 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	62.5%	0%	27.78%
-14.5	75%	0%	33.33%
-12.5	87.5%	0%	38.89%
-10.5	87.5%	0%	38.89%
-8.5	87.5%	0%	38.89%
-6.5	100%	0%	44.44%
-4.5	100%	0%	44.44%
-2.5	100%	0%	44.44%
-0.5	100%	0%	44.44%
0.5	100%	0%	44.44%
2.5	100%	0%	44.44%
4.5	100%	0%	44.44%
6.5	100%	0%	44.44%
8.5	100%	0%	44.44%
10.5	100%	0%	44.44%
12.5	100%	10%	50%
14.5	100%	30%	61.11%
16.5	100%	70%	83.33%

FISSURE Universe Episode 8

8 matches • 3 wins • 5 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	33.33%	0%	12.5%
-14.5	33.33%	0%	12.5%
-12.5	66.67%	0%	25%
-10.5	66.67%	0%	25%
-8.5	66.67%	0%	25%
-6.5	66.67%	0%	25%
-4.5	66.67%	0%	25%
-2.5	66.67%	0%	25%
-0.5	100%	0%	37.5%
0.5	100%	0%	37.5%
2.5	100%	0%	37.5%
4.5	100%	0%	37.5%
6.5	100%	0%	37.5%
8.5	100%	0%	37.5%
10.5	100%	20%	50%
12.5	100%	20%	50%
14.5	100%	20%	50%
16.5	100%	60%	75%

FISSURE Universe Episode 6

25 matches • 11 wins • 14 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	72.73%	0%	32%
-14.5	72.73%	0%	32%
-12.5	90.91%	0%	40%
-10.5	90.91%	7.14%	44%
-8.5	90.91%	7.14%	44%
-6.5	100%	7.14%	48%
-4.5	100%	7.14%	48%
-2.5	100%	7.14%	48%
-0.5	100%	14.29%	52%
0.5	100%	14.29%	52%
2.5	100%	14.29%	52%
4.5	100%	21.43%	56%
6.5	100%	35.71%	64%
8.5	100%	42.86%	68%
10.5	100%	57.14%	76%
12.5	100%	57.14%	76%
14.5	100%	64.29%	80%
16.5	100%	78.57%	88%

FISSURE Universe Episode 5

26 matches • 14 wins • 12 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	50%	0%	26.92%
-14.5	57.14%	0%	30.77%
-12.5	57.14%	0%	30.77%
-10.5	57.14%	0%	30.77%
-8.5	64.29%	0%	34.62%
-6.5	64.29%	0%	34.62%
-4.5	71.43%	0%	38.46%
-2.5	85.71%	0%	46.15%
-0.5	85.71%	0%	46.15%
0.5	85.71%	0%	46.15%
2.5	92.86%	0%	50%
4.5	100%	0%	53.85%
6.5	100%	0%	53.85%
8.5	100%	0%	53.85%
10.5	100%	0%	53.85%
12.5	100%	8.33%	57.69%
14.5	100%	25%	65.38%
16.5	100%	33.33%	69.23%

PGL Wallachia 2025 Season 5

6 matches • 0 wins • 6 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	0%	0%	0%
-14.5	0%	0%	0%
-12.5	0%	0%	0%
-10.5	0%	0%	0%
-8.5	0%	0%	0%
-6.5	0%	0%	0%
-4.5	0%	0%	0%
-2.5	0%	0%	0%
-0.5	0%	16.67%	16.67%
0.5	0%	16.67%	16.67%
2.5	0%	16.67%	16.67%
4.5	0%	16.67%	16.67%
6.5	0%	33.33%	33.33%
8.5	0%	33.33%	33.33%
10.5	0%	33.33%	33.33%
12.5	0%	66.67%	66.67%
14.5	0%	66.67%	66.67%
16.5	0%	100%	100%

DreamLeague Season 26

14 matches • 4 wins • 10 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	0%	0%	0%
-14.5	25%	0%	7.14%
-12.5	50%	0%	14.29%
-10.5	75%	0%	21.43%
-8.5	75%	0%	21.43%
-6.5	75%	10%	28.57%
-4.5	75%	10%	28.57%
-2.5	75%	10%	28.57%
-0.5	75%	10%	28.57%
0.5	75%	10%	28.57%
2.5	75%	20%	35.71%
4.5	75%	30%	42.86%
6.5	75%	30%	42.86%
8.5	100%	30%	50%
10.5	100%	50%	64.29%
12.5	100%	50%	64.29%
14.5	100%	50%	64.29%
16.5	100%	70%	78.57%

PGL Wallachia 2025 Season 4

8 matches • 2 wins • 6 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	50%	0%	12.5%
-14.5	50%	0%	12.5%
-12.5	50%	0%	12.5%
-10.5	50%	0%	12.5%
-8.5	100%	0%	25%
-6.5	100%	0%	25%
-4.5	100%	0%	25%
-2.5	100%	0%	25%
-0.5	100%	0%	25%
0.5	100%	0%	25%
2.5	100%	0%	25%
4.5	100%	16.67%	37.5%
6.5	100%	16.67%	37.5%
8.5	100%	16.67%	37.5%
10.5	100%	16.67%	37.5%
12.5	100%	16.67%	37.5%
14.5	100%	50%	62.5%
16.5	100%	50%	62.5%

ESL One Raleigh 2025

12 matches • 5 wins • 7 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	60%	0%	25%
-14.5	60%	0%	25%
-12.5	80%	0%	33.33%
-10.5	80%	0%	33.33%
-8.5	80%	0%	33.33%
-6.5	80%	0%	33.33%
-4.5	100%	0%	41.67%
-2.5	100%	14.29%	50%
-0.5	100%	14.29%	50%
0.5	100%	14.29%	50%
2.5	100%	14.29%	50%
4.5	100%	14.29%	50%
6.5	100%	28.57%	58.33%
8.5	100%	28.57%	58.33%
10.5	100%	28.57%	58.33%
12.5	100%	28.57%	58.33%
14.5	100%	28.57%	58.33%
16.5	100%	42.86%	66.67%

PGL Wallachia 2025 Season 3

9 matches • 2 wins • 7 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	0%	0%	0%
-14.5	0%	0%	0%
-12.5	0%	0%	0%
-10.5	0%	0%	0%
-8.5	0%	0%	0%
-6.5	50%	0%	11.11%
-4.5	50%	0%	11.11%
-2.5	50%	0%	11.11%
-0.5	50%	0%	11.11%
0.5	50%	0%	11.11%
2.5	50%	0%	11.11%
4.5	50%	0%	11.11%
6.5	100%	0%	22.22%
8.5	100%	28.57%	44.44%
10.5	100%	28.57%	44.44%
12.5	100%	28.57%	44.44%
14.5	100%	28.57%	44.44%
16.5	100%	42.86%	55.56%

DreamLeague Season 25 powered by Intel

14 matches • 2 wins • 12 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	0%	0%	0%
-14.5	0%	0%	0%
-12.5	50%	0%	7.14%
-10.5	100%	0%	14.29%
-8.5	100%	0%	14.29%
-6.5	100%	0%	14.29%
-4.5	100%	0%	14.29%
-2.5	100%	0%	14.29%
-0.5	100%	0%	14.29%
0.5	100%	0%	14.29%
2.5	100%	0%	14.29%
4.5	100%	0%	14.29%
6.5	100%	8.33%	21.43%
8.5	100%	8.33%	21.43%
10.5	100%	8.33%	21.43%
12.5	100%	8.33%	21.43%
14.5	100%	8.33%	21.43%
16.5	100%	8.33%	21.43%

FISSURE PLAYGROUND 1 - Dota

10 matches • 5 wins • 5 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	100%	0%	50%
-14.5	100%	0%	50%
-12.5	100%	0%	50%
-10.5	100%	0%	50%
-8.5	100%	0%	50%
-6.5	100%	0%	50%
-4.5	100%	0%	50%
-2.5	100%	0%	50%
-0.5	100%	0%	50%
0.5	100%	0%	50%
2.5	100%	0%	50%
4.5	100%	20%	60%
6.5	100%	20%	60%
8.5	100%	40%	70%
10.5	100%	40%	70%
12.5	100%	40%	70%
14.5	100%	40%	70%
16.5	100%	40%	70%

ESL One Bangkok 2024 powered by Intel

15 matches • 7 wins • 8 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-14.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-12.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-10.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-8.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-6.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-4.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-2.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
-0.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
0.5	71.43%	0%	33.33%
2.5	71.43%	12.5%	40%
4.5	100%	12.5%	53.33%
6.5	100%	12.5%	53.33%
8.5	100%	12.5%	53.33%
10.5	100%	12.5%	53.33%
12.5	100%	12.5%	53.33%
14.5	100%	12.5%	53.33%
16.5	100%	25%	60%

DreamLeague Season 24 powered by Intel

14 matches • 6 wins • 8 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	0%	0%	0%
-14.5	33.33%	0%	14.29%
-12.5	33.33%	0%	14.29%
-10.5	50%	0%	21.43%
-8.5	50%	0%	21.43%
-6.5	50%	0%	21.43%
-4.5	66.67%	0%	28.57%
-2.5	83.33%	0%	35.71%
-0.5	83.33%	0%	35.71%
0.5	83.33%	0%	35.71%
2.5	83.33%	0%	35.71%
4.5	100%	0%	42.86%
6.5	100%	12.5%	50%
8.5	100%	12.5%	50%
10.5	100%	12.5%	50%
12.5	100%	25%	57.14%
14.5	100%	37.5%	64.29%
16.5	100%	37.5%	64.29%

PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2

15 matches • 8 wins • 7 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	37.5%	0%	20%
-14.5	37.5%	0%	20%
-12.5	50%	0%	26.67%
-10.5	75%	0%	40%
-8.5	75%	0%	40%
-6.5	87.5%	0%	46.67%
-4.5	100%	0%	53.33%
-2.5	100%	0%	53.33%
-0.5	100%	0%	53.33%
0.5	100%	0%	53.33%
2.5	100%	0%	53.33%
4.5	100%	0%	53.33%
6.5	100%	0%	53.33%
8.5	100%	0%	53.33%
10.5	100%	0%	53.33%
12.5	100%	28.57%	66.67%
14.5	100%	42.86%	73.33%
16.5	100%	42.86%	73.33%

Handicap Analysis by Patch

Patch 7.40

26 matches • 11 wins • 15 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	54.55%	0%	23.08%
-14.5	63.64%	0%	26.92%
-12.5	81.82%	0%	34.62%
-10.5	81.82%	0%	34.62%
-8.5	81.82%	0%	34.62%
-6.5	90.91%	0%	38.46%
-4.5	90.91%	0%	38.46%
-2.5	90.91%	0%	38.46%
-0.5	100%	0%	42.31%
0.5	100%	0%	42.31%
2.5	100%	0%	42.31%
4.5	100%	0%	42.31%
6.5	100%	0%	42.31%
8.5	100%	0%	42.31%
10.5	100%	6.67%	46.15%
12.5	100%	13.33%	50%
14.5	100%	26.67%	57.69%
16.5	100%	66.67%	80.77%

Patch 7.39

39 matches • 14 wins • 25 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	71.43%	0%	25.64%
-14.5	71.43%	0%	25.64%
-12.5	85.71%	0%	30.77%
-10.5	85.71%	4%	33.33%
-8.5	85.71%	4%	33.33%
-6.5	92.86%	4%	35.9%
-4.5	100%	4%	38.46%
-2.5	100%	4%	38.46%
-0.5	100%	12%	43.59%
0.5	100%	12%	43.59%
2.5	100%	12%	43.59%
4.5	100%	16%	46.15%
6.5	100%	28%	53.85%
8.5	100%	32%	56.41%
10.5	100%	40%	61.54%
12.5	100%	48%	66.67%
14.5	100%	52%	69.23%
16.5	100%	68%	79.49%

Patch 7.38

63 matches • 24 wins • 39 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	37.5%	0%	14.29%
-14.5	45.83%	0%	17.46%
-12.5	54.17%	0%	20.63%
-10.5	58.33%	0%	22.22%
-8.5	66.67%	0%	25.4%
-6.5	70.83%	2.56%	28.57%
-4.5	75%	2.56%	30.16%
-2.5	83.33%	5.13%	34.92%
-0.5	83.33%	5.13%	34.92%
0.5	83.33%	5.13%	34.92%
2.5	87.5%	7.69%	38.1%
4.5	91.67%	12.82%	42.86%
6.5	95.83%	15.38%	46.03%
8.5	100%	20.51%	50.79%
10.5	100%	25.64%	53.97%
12.5	100%	28.21%	55.56%
14.5	100%	38.46%	61.9%
16.5	100%	51.28%	69.84%

Patch 7.37

66 matches • 28 wins • 38 losses

Handicap	Wins %	Losses %	Total %
-16.5	46.43%	0%	19.7%
-14.5	53.57%	0%	22.73%
-12.5	60.71%	0%	25.76%
-10.5	75%	0%	31.82%
-8.5	75%	0%	31.82%
-6.5	78.57%	0%	33.33%
-4.5	85.71%	0%	36.36%
-2.5	89.29%	0%	37.88%
-0.5	89.29%	0%	37.88%
0.5	89.29%	0%	37.88%
2.5	89.29%	2.63%	39.39%
4.5	100%	5.26%	45.45%
6.5	100%	10.53%	48.48%
8.5	100%	13.16%	50%
10.5	100%	13.16%	50%
12.5	100%	21.05%	54.55%
14.5	100%	26.32%	57.58%
16.5	100%	28.95%	59.09%